Same value. Same rent.
$498 a week apart.

1.0 The Signal

he Australian ran a piece yesterday that confirmed what I have been telling you since the budget. Australia's 2.3 million property investors are changing course, and the lenders are the ones sounding it out loud.

The negative gearing overhaul made established property expensive to hold. The deal with the Greens closed off lending inside self-managed super. What is left for investors is new housing.

Brokers are seeing it on the ground. One lender reported five investors in the past two weeks alone — all previously set on established homes — now looking at new house and land packages.

The pivot to new builds is no longer a forecast.

The Australian: First-home buyers fall foul of Labor fix as investors move in

“First-home buyers fall foul of Labor ‘fix’ as investors move in.” — The Australian, 13 July 2026.

2.0 The Numbers

Two properties. Both valued at $1 million. Both renting for $36,400 a year. Both carrying the same expenses. The only difference is the age of the asset.

Here are the weekly costs for an investor on the top marginal tax rate.

New property

40-year-old property

Property value

$1m

Annual rental income

$36,400

Estimated expenses

$73,500

Depreciation deductions

$19,000

Nil

Before-tax shortfall

$713 per week

Tax benefit

$498 per week

Nil

Net shortfall after tax

$215 per week

$713 per week

Source: JKB Property, Cotality, ATO. Weekly costs for an investor on the top marginal tax rate.

A new build can carry around $20,000 a year in depreciation deductions. On established stock, more than $35,000 of annual deductions are no longer allowed. From July next year, negative gearing applies to new housing only — and lenders have already cut what investors can borrow against established property.

Canberra says this rebalances the market for first-home buyers. The early evidence is simpler. Investors go where the tax treatment sends them, and right now it sends them to new builds.

Quote

The tax system no longer rewards holding old stock. It rewards building new.

I have never focused on the strategy of negative gearing. Cashflow first, always. The asset pays for itself.

But when two identical assets sit $498 a week apart on tax treatment alone, you do not fight the current.

If you want to know where the underpriced assets are at the moment, call or text me direct on 0418 813 825 — or

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Because in the end, this was never really about property.

It is about freedom. Property is simply the vehicle — and while supply stays this far behind demand, it remains the most dependable one we have. Governments will keep changing the rules at the edges. The fundamentals underneath have not moved.

Bricks and mortar keep paying the income, building the equity and funding the life you actually want. The people who keep building quietly through the noise are the ones who end up free.

To your freedom,