Decision day is today.

2:30pm

Decision today

4.35%

The expected hold

37 of 37

Economists say hold

1.0 The Signal

he Reserve Bank hands down its August decision at 2:30 this afternoon. All 37 economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold at 4.35 per cent, and all four major banks agree.

My call is the same: they hold, and the forecast track published alongside the decision will say the rate stays put well into 2027. That is the opinion. The evidence worth more than any opinion landed a fortnight ago.

National home values fell 0.7 per cent in July, the largest monthly fall since December 2022, with five of the eight capitals declining. Rents kept climbing and national vacancy sat at 1.3 per cent when 2.5 to 3.5 is balanced. Prices easing, rents rising — that split is the story, whatever the Board says at half past two.

Aerial view of suburban rooftops and streets

Every one of these roofs is either paying rent or collecting it.

2.0 The Numbers

Set the decision aside for a moment. Look at what moved around the country in July, and what refused to.

These are the latest figures.

Where it stands

What it means

National home values, July

Down 0.7%

Largest monthly fall since Dec 2022

Capitals in decline

5 of 8

Regionals fell too, first since Jan 2023

National vacancy, June

1.3%

Balanced is 2.5–3.5%

Rents nationally

Still climbing

Through the price falls

The 2026 rate path

3.60% to 4.35%

Three rises, January to May

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, July 2026; SQM Research national vacancy report, June 2026 (released 14 July); Reuters economist survey and major-bank previews, August 2026.

The split is national. Five of eight capitals fell in July and the regions joined them, yet vacancy sits at 1.3 per cent when 2.5 to 3.5 is balanced. The price side of the market answers to the cost of money. The income side answers to the shortage of places to live.

In the markets we buy, rents are growing faster than holding costs. When the price of an asset drifts while its income climbs, the yield improves on the day you enter. That is arithmetic, not opinion — and it is happening while most buyers are still watching the cash rate instead of the rent.

Whatever the Board announces this afternoon, the test does not change. Does the asset pay for itself at today’s lending rates — the rate the bank actually charges, not the cash rate? Each month this split runs, more assets pass.

Quote

Prices answer to interest rates. Rents answer to the shortage.

We have spent the year buying into that split, and holding what we buy. And when the cuts eventually come while the rent keeps climbing, the same numbers improve from both ends — the income rising as the biggest cost falls. How good does the asset look then?

If you want a second pair of eyes on your numbers — at this afternoon’s rate, whatever it turns out to be — the booking link is below.

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If you want to know where the shortage is tightest and the stock is underpriced, call or text me direct on 0418 813 825 — or

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Because in the end, this was never really about property.

It is about freedom. Property is simply the vehicle, and while supply stays this far behind demand, it remains the most dependable one we have. The commentary will keep churning. The fundamentals underneath have not moved.

Bricks and mortar keep paying the income, building the equity and funding the life you actually want. The people who keep building quietly through the noise are the ones who end up free.

To your freedom,