The cash rate already sits at 4.35 per cent after three increases since January. The major banks expect quarterly trimmed mean inflation around 0.9 per cent — enough to keep an August rise on the table. Every hiking year produces the same commentary. Wait until rates settle. Sit out the cycle. It sounds prudent. It confuses the price of money with the performance of the asset.
The cash rate moves the cost of money. It does not build a single home.
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2.0 The Numbers
Set the commentary aside and look at the scoreboard. What the rate cycle has done, against what the rental market has done. These are the latest figures.
Source: RBA cash rate decisions 2026; ABS CPI release schedule; major-bank June-quarter CPI previews; Brisbane vacancy and rent data to June 2026. The mechanism is simple. Rates move the cost of holding an asset. They do not move the shortage of places to live. Supply lag is years and the rent response is months. When higher rates slow construction — and they do — the shortage deepens and rents carry more of the load. We ran this experiment between May 2022 and November 2023. Thirteen rate rises in eighteen months, the steepest cycle in a generation. Vacancy tightened and rents rose through every one of them. The investors who sold to wait for the peak gave up the income and watched rents climb without them. That is why the test never changes. Does the asset pay for itself? A property whose rent covers its costs at today’s rates does not need Wednesday’s number to co-operate. If the Board lifts in August, the asset still pays. If it holds, the asset still pays.
This is why I do not buy assets that need a rate cut to work. If the numbers only work at a lower rate, the numbers do not work. Cashflow first, always. The asset pays for itself. In the markets we buy, rents are growing faster than holding costs, and vacancy under one per cent keeps it that way. If you want a second pair of eyes on how your numbers hold up at current rates — or one rise higher — the booking link is below.
If you want to know where the shortage is tightest and the stock is underpriced, call or text me direct on 0418 813 825 — or
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Because in the end, this was never really about property. It is about freedom. Property is simply the vehicle, and while supply stays this far behind demand, it remains the most dependable one we have. The commentary will keep churning. The fundamentals underneath have not moved. Bricks and mortar keep paying the income, building the equity and funding the life you actually want. The people who keep building quietly through the noise are the ones who end up free.
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To your freedom,
Investor · Developer · Qualified Valuer Mobile: 0418 813 825 · colemaninvest.au |
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© 2026 Coleman Invest | Private Investment Office |
Rates
Aug 2026
Rate cuts are now a 2027 story. Rents are not waiting.
Inflation landed at 3.8 per cent. The August rise is off the table, cuts are a year away, and vacancy is still under one per cent.
Read the brief →
Rates
Aug 2026
Decision day is today. The test does not change.
The Board announces at 2:30 this afternoon. My call is a hold. The bigger story is prices easing around the country while rents keep climbing.
Read the brief →
Strategy
Jul 2026
In three decades of property, I've never met a wealthy forecaster.
The variable that builds wealth isn't timing. It's holding power.
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