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Week of 5 October 2026
Locked out of buying,
so they rent.
New-build homes are where the rental demand is landing.
1.0 The Signal
On Tuesday 29 September the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate from 4.35 to 4.60 per cent. It is the highest cash rate in 15 years. Macquarie has said its variable home loan rates will rise by 0.25 per cent from 15 October.
Every rise cuts what a buyer can borrow. Economists quoted by the ABC put the loss in average borrowing capacity at about $90,000, and auction clearance rates have fallen below 50 per cent.
Fewer people can buy. They still need somewhere to live, so they rent.
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2.0 The Numbers
| RBA cash rate, from 29 September 2026 | 4.60% | | Change at the 29 September meeting | +0.25% | | Brisbane rental vacancy rate, August | 0.9% | | National rental vacancy rate, August | 1.3% | | Brisbane house rents, past year | +6.7% | | Loss in average borrowing capacity (economists, ABC) | about $90,000 |
Sources: RBA decision of 29 September 2026, ABC News, SQM Research (August 2026 vacancy data, released 15 September), Cotality (August 2026 data). Figures as reported in September and October 2026.
One thing to keep straight. The cash rate is not what you pay. Borrowers pay the bank's lending rate, which is the cash rate plus the bank's margin and is materially higher. The test for any asset is whether it pays for itself at today's lending rates, the rate the bank actually charges, not the cash rate.
Now the other side. Brisbane vacancy is 0.9 per cent and the national rate is 1.3, both well under the 3.3 per cent that was normal before COVID. Brisbane house rents are up 6.7 per cent over the past year.
A buyer who cannot get the loan does not leave the market for good. They keep renting, and that demand lands on a rental pool that is already thin. Supply lag is years and the rent response is months.
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Buyers who are priced out do not leave the market. They rent.
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The headlines are about borrowers. Rents are the other half of the story, and they are why cash flow properties keep working in a higher-rate year. I source cash flow properties off market from around the country, and each one is assessed at today's lending rates, not the cash rate. If you want to see what is available, the booking link is below.
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The Free Guide
How do you get ahead while everyone else waits?
The media will keep arguing about the next rate move. The investors getting ahead are doing something simpler. They buy cash flow first and let time do the rest.
The free guide sets out the new rules, and where the opportunity has moved.
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If you want to run the lending-rate test on a real package, call or text me direct on 0418 813 825 — or
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Because in the end, this was never really about the cash rate.
It is about freedom. Governments will keep changing the rules at the edges and the media will keep reporting each one as the end of something. The fundamentals underneath have not moved.
Buy what pays for itself at the rate the bank charges. Hold it through the noise. The people who keep building quietly are the ones who end up free.
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